Full text of 'THE NEWSWEEKLY OF INFORMATION SYSTEMS MANAGEMENTMay 14,1990 ■ Vol. 20 ■ 150 Pages ■ $2/ Copy ■ $48/ Yea rINSIDEIn Depth — Moveover, Unix: Herecomes Mach!Page 97.Executive Report —Wall Street tries toshed weight whilebuilding muscle.Page 75.Secret Service crackdownscoops up thousands of com¬puter disks, but details onscope of hacker case remainsealed as nationwide inves¬tigation continues. Page128.Novell, Banyan take differ¬ent tacks to position theirproducts against Micro¬soft’s LAN Manager.Page 10.Doesn’t make the grade:IBM offers low-end 286-based PS/2 to educationmarket, but academic com¬puter managers say systemwon’t gain admittance.Page 128.PC-size VAX?
DEC officialresponds to user queries atDECUS with hints of up¬coming systems. Page 8.Who was endorsing whomwhen IBM and DEC showedup at Computer Asso¬ciates’ coming-out party forCA ’90s? Page 25.AT&T lowers entry cost ofits graphical workstation-based network manage¬ment system. Page 129.Don’t look back is thetheme at Epoch Systems,which has gone through aboom year in its storagemarket niche. Page 103.Windowspulls Lotusinto comerMultiple 1-2-3 choicescould confuse marketBY PATRICIA KEEFECW STAFFBOSTON — Bowing to userpressure and the anticipated im¬pact of Windows 3.0, Lotus De¬velopment Corp.
Full text of 'ECONOMICREPORTOF THEPRESIDENTTRANSMITTED TO THE CONGRESS FEBRUARY 2011TOGETHER WITH THE ANNUAL REPORTOF THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS!ECONOMICREPORTOF THEPRESIDENTTRANSMITTED TO THE CONGRESSFEBRUARY 2011TOGETHER WITHTHE ANNUAL REPORTOF THECOUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERSUNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICEWASHINGTON: 2011For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing OfficeInternet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512-1800; DC area (202) 512-1800Fax: (202) 512-2104 Mail: Stop IDCC, Washington, DC ISBN 978-0-16-087664-6ACONTENTSPageECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT. 1ANNUAL REPORT OF THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS. 9CHAPTER 1. FROM CRISIS TO RECOVERY AND GROWTH. THE YEAR IN REVIEW AND THE YEARSAHEAD. 29CHAPTER 3 THE FOUNDATIONS OF GROWTH.
THE WORLD ECONOMY. HEALTH CARE REFORM.
111CHAPTER 6. TRANSITIONING TO A CLEAN ENERGYFUTURE. 125CHAPTER 7. SUPPORTING AMERICA’ S SMALLBUSINESSES. 157APPENDIX A. REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT ON THEACTIVITIES OF THE COUNCIL OFECONOMIC ADVISERS DURING 2010.
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165APPENDIX B. STATISTICAL TABLES RELATING TO INCOME,EMPLOYMENT, AND PRODUCTION.
179.For a detailed table of contents of the Council’s Report, see page 13.Digitized by the Internet Archivein 2018 with funding fromKahle/Austin FoundationREPORTOF THEPRESIDENT.ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENTTo the Congress of the United States:As we begin a new year, the country is still emerging from the worstrecession in generations. Across the nation, millions lost their jobs, theirbusinesses, and their sense of security about the future. Many have had toput off their plans for a better life: going to college, buying a new home, orretiring after a long career.At the same time, we’ve seen encouraging signs that the recovery isbeginning to take hold. An economy that had been shrinking for a yearis now growing again.
After two years of job losses, our economy addedmore than one million private sector jobs in 2010. Yet, as we all are too wellaware, the recovery is not happening fast enough. Millions of Americans—our neighbors, friends, family members—are still looking for jobs. Thismeans that the most immediate task must be to get our fellow Americansback to work by accelerating economic growth and job creation by theprivate sector.That’s why, at the end of last year, I signed into law a measureto prevent taxes from rising on middle-class families and to create newincentives for businesses to create jobs. This bipartisan compromise cutpayroll taxes for 155 million workers, prevented a $3,000 tax increase fromgoing into effect on the typical working family, and extended importanttax credits to help families make ends meet and send their kids to college.The law also extended unemployment insurance, preventing 7 millionAmericans from losing their benefits as they look for new work, and gavebusinesses two powerful incentives to invest and create jobs.
These were100 percent expensing of investment expenditures and an extension of theresearch and experimentation tax credit.I proposed an up-front investment in building new roads, rails,and runways to upgrade our infrastructure and create new jobs. And lastmonth, I laid out a commonsense approach to regulation that is pragmatic,Economic Report of the President 3based on evidence, and driven by data that will help lay the groundworkfor economic growth and job creation while continuing to protectour health, safety, and environment. In addition, my Administrationhas moved aggressively to open markets abroad and boost exports ofAmerican goods and services.These steps will help the economy this year.
But it is also essentialthat we take stock and look to the future—to what kind of America wewant to see emerge from this crisis and take shape for the generations ofAmericans to come.We know what it takes to compete for the jobs and industries ofour time. We know what we have to do to win the future. We need toout-innovate, out-educate, and out-build the rest of the world. We have tomake America the best place on Earth to do business. We need to rein indeficits after a decade of rising debt, and reform our government.
This isthe way to robust and widely shared prosperity.The first step in winning the future is encouraging American inno¬vation. That is ultimately driven by free enterprise. But public support alsoplays an essential role in encouraging innovative research and develop¬ment. It holds incredible promise for our future. That is why, throughouthistory our government has provided cutting-edge scientists and inventorswith the support that they need. This is what planted the seeds for theInternet. This is what helped make possible breakthroughs like computerchips and GPS.Two years ago, I set a goal for America: that we needed to reacha level of research and development we haven’t seen since the height ofthe Space Race.
And this year, my budget helps us meet that goal. We’llinvest in biomedical research, information technology, and especiallyclean energy technology—an investment that will strengthen our security,protect our planet, and create countless new jobs for our people.We’ve begun to reinvent our energy policy.
We’re telling America’sscientists and engineers that if they assemble teams of the best minds intheir fields, and focus on the hardest problems in clean energy, we’ll fundthe Apollo Projects of our time. We’re doing this through investments ininnovation hubs across America.
These are teams of scientists focusedon one difficult problem. We’re also supporting the Advanced ResearchProjects Agency for Energy, modeled on a successful defense agency thathas developed cutting-edge technologies for decades.In addition, clean energy breakthroughs will only translate intoclean energy jobs if businesses know there will be a market for what they’re4Economic Report of the Presidentselling.
So in my State of the Union, I called on Congress to join me insetting a new goal: by 2035, 80 percent of America’s electricity will comefrom clean energy sources.The second part of our strategy is education. Over the next ten years,nearly half of all new jobs will require education that goes beyond a highschool degree. And yet, as many as a quarter of our students aren’t evenfinishing high school.
The quality of our math and science education lagsbehind many other nations. And so the question is whether all of us—ascitizens, and as parents—are willing to do what’s necessary to give everychild a chance to succeed.Of course, our schools share this responsibility. When a child walksinto a classroom, it should be a place of high expectations and high perfor¬mance.
Yet too many schools in our country don’t meet this threshold test.That’s why we launched a competition called Race to the Top. Race to theTop is the most meaningful reform of our public schools in a generation.For less than one percent of what we spend on education each year, it hasled over 40 states to raise their standards for teaching and learning.Next, because an increasing number of jobs require more than ahigh school diploma, higher education must be within reach of everyAmerican. So we’ve ended the taxpayer subsidies that went to banks to actas a middleman in the student loan process, and used the savings to makecollege affordable for millions of students. And this year, we will work tomake permanent our tuition tax credit—worth $10,000 for four years ofcollege. We are also revitalizing America’s community colleges, whichwill help us reach the goal I set two years ago: by the end of the decade,America will once again have the highest proportion of college graduatesin the world.The third step in winning the future is rebuilding America. Toattract new businesses to our shores, we need the fastest, most reliableways to move people, goods, and information—from high-speed rail tohigh-speed internet. That is why, over the last two years, we have begunrebuilding for the 21st century, a project that has meant thousands of goodjobs for the hard-hit construction industry.We will put more Americans to work repairing crumbling roads andbridges.
We will make sure this is fully paid for, attract private investment,and pick projects based on what’s best for the economy, not politicians.Within 25 years, our goal is to give 80 percent of Americans access to high¬speed rail, which could allow you to go places in half the time it takes totravel by car. Routes in California and the Midwest are already underway.Economic Report of the President5And within the next five years, we will also make it possible for business todeploy the next generation of high-speed wireless coverage to 98 percentof all Americans.All these investments—in innovation, education, and infrastruc¬ture—will make America a better place to do business and create jobs. Butto help our companies compete, we also have to knock down barriers thatstand in the way of their success.To help businesses sell more products abroad, we set a goal ofdoubling our exports by 2014. My Administration has worked to knockdown barriers our exporters face and advocated for U.S. Exportersabroad—resulting in signing important deals to sell more American goodsand services to China and India. And in December, we finalized a tradeagreement with South Korea that will support at least 70,000 Americanjobs. This agreement has unprecedented support from business and labor,Democrats and Republicans, and I’ve asked Congress to pass it as soonas possible.
Finally, we are also pursuing agreements with Panama andColombia, and continuing our Asia Pacific and global trade talks.To reduce barriers to growth and investment, Ive ordered a reviewof government regulations. When we find rules that put an unnecessaryburden on businesses, we will fix them. But I will not hesitate to create orenforce commonsense safeguards to protect the American people. That’swhat we’ve done in this country for more than a century, from child laborlaws to protections for our air and water. It’s why last year, we put in placeconsumer protections against hidden fees and penalties by credit cardcompanies, and new rules to prevent another financial crisis. And it’s whywe passed reform that finally prevents the health insurance industry fromexploiting patients.The final step in winning the future is to make sure we aren’t buriedunder a mountain of debt.
We are living with a legacy of deficit-spendingthat began almost a decade ago. And in the wake of the financial crisis,some of that was necessary to keep credit flowing, save jobs, and putmoney in people’s pockets.That is why in my Budget, I’ve proposed that government live withinits means while investing in the future. I have promised to veto any bill thatcontains earmarks.
I’ve proposed freezing annual domestic spending forthe next five years. This would reduce the deficit by more than $400 billionover the next decade, and will bring discretionary spending to the lowestshare of our economy since Dwight Eisenhower was President.6Economic Report of the PresidentYet, at the same time, we cannot solve our fiscal problems on thebacks of our most vulnerable citizens. And it would also be a mistake tocut the deficit by gutting our investments in innovation and education,which are so critical for our future prosperity.
The fact is, priorities likeeducation, innovation, and infrastructure have traditionally commandedbipartisan support. There are no inherent ideological differences thatshould prevent Democrats and Republicans from improving our economy.We are all Americans, and we are all in this race together—we can focus onwhat is necessary for America to win the future.For as difficult as the times may be, the good news is that we knowwhat the future could look like for the United States. We can see it in theclassrooms that are experimenting with groundbreaking reforms, andgiving children new math and science skills at an early age. We can see it inthe wind farms, solar plants, and advanced battery plants that are openingacross America. We can see it in the laboratories and research facilities allover this country that are churning out discoveries and turning them intonew start-ups and new jobs.Our job is simply to harness the potential that exists all across thiscountry, and this economic report lays out the policies that will help ournation succeed by doing exactly that.
In the subsequent chapters, we willlook at the progress that has been made over the past year. In addition, thisreport will lay out many of the policies that will foster growth and makeour economy more competitive. That is our great challenge today. And Iam absolutely confident it is one we will meet.THE WHITE HOUSEFEBRUARY 2011Economic Report of the President7■THE ANNUAL REPORTOF THECOUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERSLETTER OF TRANSMITTALCouncil of Economic AdvisersWashington, D.C., February 23, 2011Mr.
President:The Council of Economic Advisers herewith submits its 2011 AnnualReport in accordance with the provisions of the Employment Act of 1946 asamended by the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978.Sincerely,Austan GoolsbeeChairmanCecilia Elena RouseMemberllfJCONTENTSCHAPTER 1. FROM CRISIS TO RECOVERY AND GROWTH.
19The Year in Review and the Years Ahead. 22The Foundations of Growth. 23The World Economy.
24Health Reform. 25Energy Policy.
25Supporting America's Small Businesses. THE YEAR IN REVIEW AND THE YEARSAHEAD. 29Developments in 2010 and the Near-Term Outlook. 30Consumption and Saving. 30Developments in Housing Markets. 33Business Fixed Investment.
37Business Inventories. 38Government Outlays, Consumption, and Investment. 40State and Local Government. 43Real Exports and Imports. 44Labor Market Trends. 49Financial Markets.
50The Long-Term Outlook. THE FOUNDATIONS OF GROWTH. 53The Importance of Economic Growth. 53Sources of Economic Growth. 5513Innovation and Economic Growth.
57Basic Research. 58Intellectual Property Rights. 60Antitrust and the Innovative Marketplace. 61The Research and Experimentation Tax Credit. 62National Priority Areas. 63Infrastructure and Economic Growth.
64Roads, Railways, and Runways. 65Electricity Infrastructure.
66Information Networks. 67Skills and Economic Growth. 69Early Childhood Education. 72Elementary and Secondary Education. 73Higher Education. 76Job Training.
THE WORLD ECONOMY. 81Status of the World Recovery. 82Crisis Fading, But Challenges Remain. 82The Rebound in World Trade. 86Global Policy Coordination.
87The Evolution of the World Economy. 89Global Imbalances. 89Determinants of Exports. 94Evolving U.S. Trade Patterns. 97Trade Policy.
103Negotiating to Open New Markets. 103Encouraging Exports by Enforcing Existing Agreements. 107Advocacy to Encourage Exporters, Credit, and TradeFacilitation. 110CHAPTER 5. HEALTH CARE REFORM. 111Addressing the Rising Cost of Medical Care. 114Trends in Aggregate Health Spending.
114Technological Change and Increases in Health Spending. 11514 Annual Report of the Council of Economic AdvisersMarket Imperfections and Increases in Health Care Spending. 115How the Affordable Care Act Promotes High-ValueMedical Care.
116Improving the Health Insurance Market. 118Problems in the Market for Health Insurance. 119How the Affordable Care Act Addresses the Insurance MarketFailures. 120Employers and the Affordable Care Act. 122Expanding Medicaid.
123CHAPTER 6. TRANSITIONING TO A CLEAN ENERGYFUTURE. 125Initial Steps Toward a Clean Energy Economy. 128Energy Investments in the Recovery Act.
128Further Steps Toward a Cleaner Economy. 130Next Steps Toward a Clean Energy Economy. 134A Federal Clean Energy Standard. 134Energy Efficiency.
138Research and Development. 140CHAPTER 7.
SUPPORTING AMERICA’S SMALL BUSINESSES. 143Impact of the Recession on Small Businesses. 144Job Creation. 144Financing Small Business. 145Changes in Availability of Credit and Capital for Small Business 146Administration Policies to Support Small Business. 150Tax Cuts for Small Business.
150Initiatives to Increase Access to Credit. 151Policies to Encourage Greater Access to Capital. Report to the President on the Activities of the Council ofEconomic Advisers During 2010. Statistical Tables Relating to Income, Employment, andProduction.
179LIST OF FIGURES1-1. Unsustainable Expansion: Recent Boom vs. Export Growth Lagged Other Top Exporters, 2000-2005.
Investment Growth Lagged Other Major Economies,2000-2005. Real GDP Growth by Quarter. 292-2 Consumer Sentiment and the Stock Market. Consumption and Net Worth Relative to Disposable PersonalIncome (DPI). Banks’ Willingness to Lend to Consumers. House Prices. Share of Mortgages in Foreclosure.
Business Fixed Investment and Cash Flow. Inventory Investment and its Contribution to Real GDP Growth 392-9.
Manufacturing and Trade Inventories. Deficit as a Share of GDP. Exports and World GDP.
Path of Non-Census Employment in the Past Three Recessions. Path of Non-Census Employment Since the End of the Recession 463- 1. Progress in U.S.
Real Income Per Person Since 1820. E-Commerce Share of Business-to-Business ManufacturingShipments. Broadband Adoption across OECD Countries. Average Wage and Salary Income by Educational Group. Real GDP Growth. Unemployment Rate.
Import Volume Indexes. Export Volume Indexes.
Current Account Deficits or Surpluses as a Share of World GDP 914-6. Exports by Sector. Trade in Services. Share of U.S.
Goods Exports to Mature Foreign Economies. Share of U.S. Goods Exports to Major Emerging Economies. 9916 Annual Report of the Council of Economic Advisers4-10. Share of U.S. Goods Imports by Foreign Source. Export Growth vs.
Foreign GDP Growth,2009:Q2 - 2010:Q2. Projected Share of U.S. Nominal Export Growth, 2009-14. Trade Disputes at the WTO. GDP and Health Spending.
Percent of Americans Uninsured. Wind, Solar, and Geothermal Energy Generating Capacity 1326- 2.
State Renewable Energy Standards in 2025. Births, Closures, and Bankruptcies of Firms. Bank Lending to Small Business. Most Important Problem Facing Small Businesses in 2009. Venture Capital Investment.
Initial Public Offerings. SBA-Backed Loan Approvals. 152LIST OF TABLES2-1. Administration Economic Forecast. Components of Potential Real GDP Growth, 1953-2021. Import Tariffs, Nontariff Measures, and Trade Restrictiveness,2008. 104LIST OF BOXES3- 1.
Technological Progress and the Advance of Health. The Power of Market-Based Innovation. The Social Gains from Innovation.
STEM Education and Educate to Innovate. America’s Universities: Leading the World.
Skills for America’s Future. What Do We Owe the Rest of the World? The Korea-United States Free Trade Agreement. Early Provisions of the Affordable Care Act. Energy Security Benefits of Reduced Oil Consumption. Clean Energy Investments in the Recovery Act.
The Recovery Act and ARPA-E: Spurring Innovation to Transformthe Energy Economy. The Social Cost of Carbon: A Tool for Cost-Effective Policy. B3Contents171,CHAPTER 1FROM CRISIS TORECOVERY AND GROWTHT he recession that began at the end of 2007 was both the longest andthe worst since the Great Depression more than 75 years ago. By somemeasures, such as the total jobs lost, it was as deep as the past three reces¬sions combined.It was a breathtaking moment of free fall in the private sector. Capitalmarkets collapsed. Credit to businesses froze. Banks failed.
National output fell at rates not seen in decades. And millions ofpeople lost their jobs.Policymakers in the Administration, Congress, and the FederalReserve responded with aggressive, concerted actions to stop the crisis.Although there will likely be debates over the impact of each of thoseresponses for decades to come, few can dispute that the economic climatehas improved substantially from the darkest days at the end of 2008 and thebeginning of 2009 in large part because of these actions.